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When it comes to power generation, Utah faces a reckoning, and soon.
The good news is that we have more than enough resources to stare down that reckoning, defeat it and emerge on the other side prosperous and thriving. The bad news isn’t even bad news right now, but begs the question: Will we have the fortitude, wherewithal, vision and diligence to deal with this reckoning most effectively?
I’m talking about building out more natural gas capacity.
I know that’s not exactly a novel talking point from the president of the Utah Petroleum Association, but bear with me. Utah is flush with natural gas. According to the Energy Information Administration, we rank 13th in the country in natural gas production, yet only 25% of our electricity comes from natural gas production. This makes no sense.
It makes no sense because what looms ahead is the great power generation reckoning. Some utilities across the country are doubling their demand forecasts for the next five years. According to the International Energy Agency, demand for natural gas is set to reach an all-time high of 4.2 trillion cubic meters (yes, trillion) this year, with demand growing another 2.5% in 2025. A recent paper by the Information Technology & Information Foundation, whose mission is to “formulate, evaluate, and promote policy solutions that accelerate innovation and boost productivity to spur growth, opportunity, and progress,” asserts that “seasonal shifts and annual variations cannot be handled with batteries or other proposed storage solutions like hydrogen. Natural gas will have to bridge the gap for many decades.”
Among the reasons for this robust demand growth is the increasing electrification of buildings and the transportation sector and the rapid and increasing expansion of artificial intelligence technology. Data centers and AI are thirsty for power. If we want to embrace new technologies — and be a leader in them — we need to invest in the infrastructure that will allow them to flourish.
In July of this year, the Utah Department of Commerce announced the creation of the Utah Office of Artificial Intelligence Policy. Their press release reads, “The Utah Office of Artificial Intelligence (UOAI) is committed to fostering innovation and ensuring the ethical and equitable use of AI technologies across Utah. OAIP aims to establish Utah as an AI policy and implementation leader through stakeholder collaboration.”
We support Utah’s commitment to being on the leading technological edge, and we applaud the Department of Commerce for looking to set policies that address those technologies with prudent regulation and thoughtful engagement.
But without the structural backbone of a robust supply of power that not only feeds potential new and incoming data centers and AI but also meets the needs of our existing homes and businesses, artificial intelligence in Utah is over before it even begins. And any serious discussion about where we source our power needs to include natural gas, if not start there outright.
We have lots of it. A strong natural gas and oil industry in Utah benefits our economy, with lots of good-paying jobs; our government budgets, due to the variety of taxes we pay; and consumers, because locally sourced energy keeps prices lower by lessening the distance between where our energy is produced and where it’s needed. Familiar with the phrase “buy local”? Why shouldn’t that apply to energy?
But like anyone else who works on issues of public interest, we cannot do it alone. The people who work in oil and natural gas are problem solvers, and our track record of continuously improving our environmental stewardship, getting more resources out of the ground with an ever-shrinking surface footprint and innovating every single aspect of our development process is undeniable. But we must work collaboratively to build more pipelines, create more storage and embolden what is both the fuel of the present and the fuel of the foreseeable future.
Natural gas can be the engine that literally powers our lives and metaphorically drives Utah into the future with exciting new technologies. Without it? The reckoning will come quick, and it will likely hurt.
Rikki Hrenko-Browning is president of Utah Petroleum Association, a Utah-based, statewide petroleum trade association representing companies involved in all aspects of Utah’s oil and gas industry.